Check the run clock first: from 28:00 onward no new rift opens, because the game prepares for Arceus at 30:00. Earlier, the 30-second countdown advances only after 75 seconds. An existing portal or a current arena pauses it. A live boss does not pause it: each expiry resets the countdown to 30 seconds and skips the roll. Only failed valid rolls raise chance from 20% toward 100%; blocked periods do not add misses.

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What you seeWhat to doSuccess / next step
Clock is 28:00 or laterStop waiting for a new rift. Use the remaining time to preserve health and finish choices for Judgment.No new entrance is expected. An arena already entered may delay Judgment until you return.
75 seconds or lessKeep playing until after 75 seconds and allow an eligible timer to run. A rift is not promised precisely at 1:15.The planner changes from too-early blocking to eligible conditions when other blockers are clear.
Boss alive, in an arena or portal already openFinish the boss/arena or locate the existing portal marker. Count valid misses only after the blocking condition ends.Before 28:00, a defeated boss allows a roll at the next countdown expiry; each boss-blocked expiry had already reset it to 30 seconds. An expired portal or finished arena lets the paused countdown resume. None of these blocked periods added misses.
Valid checks happened, but no portal appearedEnter only those failed valid checks in the planner. Chances are 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, then 100%; a successful roll can still fail to find a valid map placement.At three prior valid misses, the next eligible roll is 80%, not guaranteed. The 28-minute cutoff still overrides it.

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